By Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Continuing with the posting of scientific reports on fuel, which are affecting the financial lives of Brazilians with their constant highs and consequently reflecting on product prices, the integrated relationship between fuel prices at retail stations and their consumption in cubic meters. Therefore, this research intends to answer questions such as: does the increase of a certain type of fuel decrease its consumption? or increases of another kind? or do they both decrease? The opposite is also valid to analyze: can increases or decreases in consumption affect their interrelated prices? Autoregressive Vector (VAR) analyzes were adopted, as they are time series, as well as the interrelationship between the variables. The collections were carried out in monthly data for the State of Santa Catarina....
By João Carlos Prats Ramos (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. The focus of this scientific report is to investigate the interrelationship of dependence of values of export, import and production of NPK in tons for the Brazilian territory on the IPPA-Grains and IPPA-Hortifrutícolas indices of CEPEA/USP. The methodology of Autoregressive Vectors (VAR) was approached in which all time series were collected and organized for the period between January 2013 and December 2021. Variable stationarities, necessary differentiation procedures, lags, p-values were observed of approval in the equations developed in the autoregressive vectors, impulse-response function and variance decomposition.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). This scientific report will follow the time series analysis script using the Autoregressive Vectors methodology, since there is a two-way relationship between the variables under analysis, collected in monthly units between January 2012 and March 2022 for the states of Santa Catarina, Bahia and Sao Paulo. The stationarities of the variables, necessary differentiation procedures, lags, approval p-values in the equations developed in the autoregressive vectors, Granger causality tests and impulse-response function were observed for each state.
By Daniel Christian Henrique, Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva, João Carlos Prats Ramos and Gianpiero Camargo Bedin. Continuing the series of posts that we started with regard to variations in food prices in various regions of the country after winter frosts and possible climate changes, via the use of Machine Learning applications in the Deciosion Tree and Randon Forest models, we will now discuss on tomato, lettuce and papaya price variations in the city of São Paulo, under the impact of meteorological variables measured by Inmet in the Mirante de Santana region. These three products were one of the most affected in the São Paulo capital by the extreme cold and frost this winter
By Daniel Christian Henrique and João Carlos Prats Ramos (Pibic scholarship holder). The increase in the costs of swine production accounted for a cumulative increase of 4.78% between January and March 2021. Adding to the fact that the total accumulated in 2020 was 48.78%, since the beginning of the pandemic there has already been a total percentage of 53.56%. A significant part of this increase is attributed to increases in the prices of grains that serve as nutrition for pigs, close to 80% of the total cost of their production (EMBRAPA, 2021). The most common grains for use in pig consumption is corn and soybeans
By Jucemar Paes Neto (extension scholarship PROBOLSAS) and Daniel Christian Henrique. There is an intrinsic relationship between the independent variables "credit supply" and "employment" in the proper analysis of which of them can have the most impact on the dependent variable “vehicle sales”. This relationship was investigated, then, for the state of Santa Catarina with a comparison with the state of São Paulo, since it is the state with the most vigorous economy in the country. Due to the fact that the months of February to September 2020 would have been marked by an abnormal period of vehicle sales resulting from the pandemic, with tempers and anxieties cooling down close to October (even with the growth of cases of coronavirus resulting from the second wave) and demand for vehicles to begin their resumption of sales in October (further confirming Anfavea's surveys), it was decided to carry out the analyzes with monthly data from January 2004 to December 2019 in order to the strong impacts of the pandemic period do not generate distortions in analyzes ....
By Daniel Christian Henrique, Jucemar Paes Neto (PROBOLSAS extension scholarship holder), Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva and Eduardo de Souza Ronsoni. Pedagogical practices and resources often need to be differentiated, making it impossible to maintain the transmission of professor-student content only through lectures. Teaching with the use of digital materials, audiovisual resources, in computer labs, including accessibility to students with visual or hearing impairment, partial or total, are some of the examples that could become a differential for students of this course profile. Within this context, the question arises: what teaching resources made available by INEP variables in its Higher Education Census would be more contributing to the teaching and learning of face-to-face and distance learning courses in technology in financial management? .....
By Jucemar Paes Neto (extension scholarship PROBOLSAS) and Daniel Christian Henrique. A study was carried out in order to ascertain whether the increase or decrease in the probabilities of Brazilian higher education students to complete their course or not are related to some of these grants and funding, as well as which ones are most contributing to this training. The data were obtained from the 2018 Higher Education Census (INEP, 2020) using the “Students” database formed by 105 variables with more than 10 million students. Therefore, analysis procedures with data programming in big data were requested to initiate the analyzes.
By Daniel Christian Henrique. Large companies in the retail segment such as Via Varejo (VVAR3 ON), Magazine Luiza (MGLU3 ON) and Lojas Americanas (LAME 3 ON) have fully recovered the value of their quotations and even surpassing them when compared to the end of February (ECONOMÁTICA, 2020). Thus, the question arises: are the return of these companies and their volatilities also influencing the resumption of B3? Or, on the contrary, would the gradual resumption of the stock exchange have a positive impact on investments in this segment, which tends to materialize even more in society in the post-pandemic period?
By Jucemar Paes Neto (extension scholarship PROBOLSAS), Luis Ricardo Mendes da Silva and Daniel Christian HenriqueSão Paulo currently configures the state with the highest tax collection in the country (COORDENAÇÃO-GERAL DE ARRECAÇÃO E COBRANÇA, 2020), demonstrating the strong potential for production industry and service provision. Additionally, it emerges as the state with the highest GDP in the country, accounting in 2017 for a total of R $ 2.09 trillion (IBGE, 2020; SEADE, 2020). However, with the new panorama of forecasts for decreasing Brazilian GDP already reaching levels of retraction that reach -6.51% for 2020 (BACEN, 2020), resulting from the crisis brought about by the coronavirus earlier this year, the state will consequently also continue feeling its effects in all its economic activity, impacting the wealth generated in its productive segments. In government management, therefore, an adequate model of forecasting revenue and GDP Per Capta is essential in this situation to balance future spending and keep the state within the law of fiscal responsibility and project the recovery of its GDP.
By Jucemar Paes Neto (extension scholarship PROBOLSAS) and Daniel Christian Henrique. According to FENAUTO (2020), since the beginning of the quarantine, vehicle sales have been falling, with a decrease of 65.2% in May sales compared to last year. In the continuum of this scenario is the question of how much this reduction in the future fleet may perceive changes in the collection of IPVA for the state. For this purpose, the IPVA variable was allocated as a response variable (Y) to be explained by the others (Xn) chosen as potential predictors, in order to analyze which of the latter could increase or reduce the collection of this tax due to the impact that the pandemic of the coronavirus permeated vehicle sales this year.