Por: Daniel Christian Henrique e João Vitor Savi. Os juros básicos da economia norte-americana (Fed Funds Target) definidas como alvo pelo Federal Reserve (Fed), o Banco Central dos Estados Unidos, estão desde o segundo semestre de 2023 estacionados na banda entre 5,25% e 5,50% (Federal Reserve Economic Data). Nas reuniões do Fed, o colegiado está rigoroso nesta manutenção, nunca antes vistas, frente as pressões que os aumentos de salários estão ocasionando nos seus índices de inflação. Neste contexto, o GPFA relacionou as variáveis em discussão, com o objetivo de compreender qual o tamanho do atraso que os salários do mercado americano têm sobre as decisões de alterações ou manutenções das taxas de juros básicas pelo FED. Entendendo, adicionalmente, que o FED mexe nas taxas com o intento de segurar ou estimular sua economia, consequentemente também visa alterar os padrões salariais. Desta forma, o sentido contrário também foi analisado como segundo objetivo: quanto tempo é necessário para que as alterações dos juros pelo FED alcancem e alterem os salários do mercado norte-americano.
Por Daniel Christian Henrique, João Vitor Savi (bolsista de extensão Probolsas), Sabrina Knoll Godoy Ilha, Fabio Augusto Dittrich. O objetivo deste informe extensionista é avaliar comparativamente entre os anos de 2019 (pré-pandemia) a 2021 (pandemia) os impactos que o número de pessoal ocupado e o Valor da Transformação Industrial (VTI) geraram nos salários da indústria dos estados da região sudeste do país. Para consecução deste propósito, foram coletados os dados do Valor da Transformação Industrial (VTI) de cada estado na Fundação Sistema Estadual de Análise de Dados (Seade), divididos em 33 divisões industriais. No mesmo arquivo eram informados os salários totais pagos a cada divisão, assim como o número de pessoal ocupado nas mesmas. Adotou-se o procedimento de regressões múltiplas, método stepwise.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). The profit of the medical, hospital and diagnostic services subsector (composed of 10 companies within the health economic sector) of B3 was R$2.19 billion (equivalent to a net margin of 4.58%). At the end of 2022, already in a period of total control of the pandemic, end of lockdowns and resumption of work activities, all companies in the segment combined made only R$ 720 million in profit in the year, that is, with a net margin of 0.9% - it was almost in the tie between income and expenses! What would have happened in this period of time? To seek answers, the following objective was generated to be investigated for this study: to carry out a comparative analysis of the quantitative and qualitative financial situation of the medical, hospital and diagnostic subsector of B3 between the years 2020 and 2022.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). The entry and exit of the capital market and fixed income seems to be constantly maintained as the cycles of high and low Selic rates take shape, mainly to combat inflation. Therefore, it is to be expected that the beginning of the cuts to the current high Selic rates will now begin, again, the opposite path: a portion will return to variable income. It will be? This is the purpose of this study: to statistically investigate the dependence of the Ibov score on changes in the Selic rate by COPOM, as well as what the delay period (lag) of this impact would be. To this end, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology was adopted to analyze the lagged relationship of the following time series collected and adjusted for monthly data between May 2000 and August 2023.
By Daniel Christian Henrique, Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva and Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). The GPFA started a comparative study on the evolution of the impact generated by the per capita household income of the Bolsa Família social program (or former Auxílio Brasil) on the average per capita household income of Brazilians. In the first study, this relationship was compared between the years 2012 and 2019. After, finally, the entire pandemic period, and already with the pace of employability growing semester after semester, returning to pre-pandemic levels (and not that they were high or good...), it is opportune to make another comparison, now, for the year 2022 - when the Emergency Aid was already revoked and the Brazil Aid resumed, with the necessary reductions of the beneficiaries of the previous program...
Por Daniel Christian Henrique e Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho (bolsista de extensão Probolsas). O tema que mais se discute nos últimos seis meses na área econômica é a elaboração do Arcabouço Fiscal pelo governo federal, com sua posterior aprovação ou não pelo congresso e senado. Não há como não tratar deste assunto na área econômica de qualquer setor público ou privado, pois afeta diretamente suas finanças. Como? Esse é o debate: os economistas se debruçam em simulações para entender se realmente a aprovação de um regramento mais rigoroso do orçamento público irá possibilitar a redução da taxa básica de juros da economia nacional pelo Banco Central, nossa velha conhecida Taxa Selic. Atualmente, a dita cuja contabiliza o maior percentual do mundo, nos já conhecidos 13,75% ao ano - que vem se mantendo nas últimas reuniões do Copom. Com possíveis futuras reduções da Selic, estimular-se-ia mais financiamentos tanto por pessoas físicas como jurídicas, mais investimentos, mais empregos, mais renda, mais compras, enfim.... a roda da economia gira. Mas até que ponto sem que se perca o controle inflacionário? Importante lembrar que em condições de inflações altas, os que mais perdem recursos e empregos são os mais pobres. Portanto, o problema não é dos mais fáceis... O GPFA, a fim de manter sua constante imparcialidade nas análises, discorrerá brevemente a posição dos dois lados em "conflito": Banco Central x Governo Federal, para depois analisar econometricamente os dados.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Lucas Ferreira Mazagão. Previously, the GPFA had started a study on the dependent relationship between the prices of food parcels in Brazilian capitals and the average income of their workers, addressing their causality over time and their consequent time lag. This report maintains the continuity and updating of this study, however now addressing cross section data only for 2022 and consequently without analysis of delays in impacts. Due to the fact that the average real income of residents in the capitals is 34% higher than that of wage earners (IBGE) throughout Brazil in 2022, it is pertinent to ask: would such an increase have an excessive impact on increases in the prices of food parcels in the capitals resulting from a possible greater demand ? The quotations for food parcels were obtained from Dieese (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Economic Studies), while the values of average real monthly income of people (over 14 years old) were obtained from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Economics and Statistics).
By João Carlos Prats Ramos (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Recently there has been a great instability in the price of milk. In this year alone, the value for the purchase of the beverage increased by 60% (EMBRAPA, 2022), being one of the main responsible for the inflationary increases in the food and beverage sector. However, there was a 37.6% drop in price in September compared to August. In view of the price increases this year in the price of milk in Brazil, followed by its initial recent low, four statistical models were proposed to forecast its average price for the next twelve months in Brazil and in the state of Santa Catarina: Arima, Additive / Multiplicative Holt-Winters and Neural Network. Both time series were collected and organized for the period from January 2012 to September 2022.
By Daniel Christian Henrique and Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder). Bolsa Família was an income transfer program created in 2003 as a unification of several national plans to combat poverty and was later replaced by Auxílio Brasil, but maintaining its basic objectives and remaining in force to this day. Due to the fact that this social project (Bolsa Família + Auxílio Brasil) has already been in force for almost 20 years and is preserved and commanded by different political parties in power, there is a need for an evolutionary comparison of its contribution over time to average income of Brazilian workers. Therefore, this scientific report aims to compare the impacts that this social project generates on household income per average capital of Brazilians in 2012 and 2019
By Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. The main objective of this scientific report was to investigate the commitment that the prices of the 13 kg gas cylinder and the Food Parcel (R$), separately and together (LPG+CB), incur in the Minimum Wage (R$) (SM) in the last 10 years and 5 months, in the state capitals of the southern region of Brazil. All time series collected are from January 2012 to May 2022. Those that were monthly were changed to annual by the metric of simple averages. The time series of the prices of the Minimum Wage (nominal) and the Food Parcelt in the three capitals were collected in DIEESE (2022). The prices of the 13kg gas cylinder, LPG, in turn, were obtained from the ANP (2022).
By João Carlos Prats Ramos (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Among the numerous varieties of crops affected in the winter of 2021 with the frosts, arabica coffee planted in the south and southwest of Minas Gerais was one of the most impacted, leveraging its price in the national and international market. Therefore, in this scientific report, it was sought to research which variables are provided by INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) collected for the cities of São Sebastião do Paraíso, Passos, Varginha, Caldas, Machado and Passa Quatro that most contribute to the fluctuations of the percentage change in the price of arabica coffee. The variables collected by INMET are those that can cause the different types of frost - advection, radiation, mixed, black or white or resulting from climate change....
By Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Probolsas extension scholarship holder) and Daniel Christian Henrique. Taking as a reference the studies published by FGV and Petrobras, this scientific report carried out a more specific research by analyzing the percentage relationship between the average annual price of a 13 kg gas cylinder (LPG) with the Minimum Wage for the four largest cities in Santa Catarina: Florianópolis, Balneário Camboriú, Joinville and Blumenau. The Minimum Wage (R$) time series was collected from the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB, 2022) and the average and maximum LPG price series (R$/13kg) for each city were obtained from the Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural and Biofuels (ANP, 2022a, 2022b). All series are monthly from January 2012 to June 2022 (whenever 2022 is mentioned, it is up to the first week) and passed to annual series through the use of averages....