Agribusiness confirms its records
The segment that was already recording records during the year, and now for the first time the month of November exceeds US$ 10 billion in exports, reaching the figure of US$ 12.65 billion - exceeding the month of November 2021 by 51% The volume exported was also a record, reaching 6.06 million tons. The most significant sectors in exports were: soybean complex (US$ 2.74 billion); cereals, flours and preparations (US$ 1.86 billion); corn (record US$1.73 billion); beef ($870 million); chicken meat (US$762.13 million) and pork (record US$228.12 million) (CANAL RURAL, 2022).
Record trade surplus in 2022 - driven by agriculture
The year 2022 surpassed the record already broken in 2021 regarding the Brazilian trade surplus, reaching US$61.4 billion. Brand achieved with improvements in sales to China in November and December and agricultural surplus, leveraged by the War in Eastern Europe and climate change (FGV IBRE, 2022).
Basic food basket increases in all capitals in 2022
If business did well in agricultural exports in 2022, the price of food in the basic basket did poorly. The price of baskets increased in the 17 capitals of the federation considering the accumulated result for the year. The biggest increases, compared to 2021, were Goiânia (17.98%), Brasília (17.25%), Campo Grande (16.03%) and Belo Horizonte (15.06%). The least significant increases were in Recife (6.15%) and Aracaju (8.99%). Some justifications for these food prices in the basket are directly related to the global increase in prices generated by the War between Russia and Ukraine, among several other factors (DIEESE, 2022).
So what about global food prices? keeps falling but still high
In December the global price of food fell for the ninth month in a row, but it is worth remembering that this year its price broke a record as a result of the War in Ukraine. So these drops are just mitigations. Accumulated, it remains up 14.3% compared to 2021 (AGROFLY NEWS, 2022).
CEAGESP Index: biggest increase in 2022
What about food prices at Ceagesp ? November maintained the previous periods of increase in the index, increasing 5.26%. But it fell more significantly in December, at -3.13%. Compared to 2021, when it generated an increase of 3.56%, its increase in 2022 was more pronounced, accumulating 11.20% (CEAGESP, 2022).
And a new increase in interest rates in the Euro Zone
In December, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its fourth consecutive increase in the basic interest rate, but now at 0.5 pp , relatively lower than the previous ones which were around 0.75 pp . - maintaining its commitment to containing European inflation. The Central Bank of Great Britain ( BoE ) followed increases at the same level of 0.5 pp . (MERCANTIL MONITOR, 2022). The president of the ECB announced that this increase pattern will be maintained for the necessary period of time until the inflation target of 2% per year is once again reached (JORNAL NEGÓCIOS, 2022).
Ibov and dollar
In November, the Ibov accumulated a drop of 3.1%, still under post-election volatility , changing the mood of October when it ended on a high, predicting an end to political instability the day after the election. The relief brought by the FED by signaling a reduction in North American interest rate increases in the fight against domestic inflation and the increase in its indices was not enough to reduce the impact of the electoral dispute here (EXAME, 2022a). Even after the election, December continued to be volatile given the monitoring of the new ministries of the newly elected government, generating a drop of 2.44%. In the year to date, however, Ibov generated gains of 4.68%. As for the dollar, despite the slight increase in the month, it closed the year down 5.32% (INFOMONEY, 2022a).
GDP 2022 and projection for 2023
In December there was a review by the Central Bank of its annual GDP projection (without official data on the final value yet), going from 2.7% to 2.9%, driven by the services sector, which had already been experiencing strong growth. post-pandemic. Projections for 2023 are just 1%, also reflecting the maintenance of complex scenarios abroad - arising from the war in Ukraine and advances in new strains of the coronavirus , as well as in the domestic scenario - given expectations with the new government that are yet to be confirmed (AGÊNCIA BRASIL, 2022; INFOMONEY, 2022b).
IPCA above target
November and December maintained slight increases in the IPCA , respectively at 0.41% and 0.62%, according to IBGE releases. The year, therefore, ended with inflation of 5.97% (much lower compared to 2021, when it ended at 10.06% - a record since 2015). Therefore, above the BC target, which had stipulated 3.5% with bands of 1.5% variation plus or minus (IBGE, 2022a; EXAME, 2022b)
Services sector also confirming its record
The services sector was one of the country's biggest highlights of the year, helping to recover the economy post-pandemic. It maintained its expansion for the 18th and 19th month in a row in November and December, even with some closures caused by the political moment of elections and World Cup games. In December, the Monthly Services Survey (PMS) recorded an increase of 3.1% in December, this being the highest value in its historical series, as well as an accumulated increase of 8.3% in 2022 (IBGE, 2022c).
Record federal revenue
The month of November continued to break the record for accumulated federal revenue. In the month of October it was R$ 205.4 billion, followed by R$ 172.038 billion in November (both already discounted for inflation rates), generating an accumulated amount of 2 trillion from January to November, the highest in its historical series since 1995 - even with the tax exemptions still in force at that moment. The main segments responsible were: the real increase of 19.18% in IRPJ and CSLL; atypical payments collected from companies in the commodities sector; real growth of 62% in Capital Income (IRRF), resulting from increases in Fixed Income Investments (RECEITA FEDERAL, 2022).
Copom maintains Selic at 13.75%
The last COMPOM meeting held by the BC was held in December, in which they decided to maintain the basic interest rate for the national economy at 13.75%, equivalent to the percentages of the last three previous meetings. Therefore, during 2022, the rate increased by 4.5 points, as it started the period at 9.25% (UOL ECONOMIA, 2022 )
Selic maintained, but credit card rotation rising
If the BC stabilized Selic interest rates again, the same cannot be said for credit card revolving interest rates from commercial banks. The year 2022 ended with a rate of 409.3% in the rotary, the most expensive in the entire market. To make matters worse, the number of loans and credits in this modality broke the record of its historical series since 2012, becoming the highest in ten years (YAHOO NOTÍCIAS, 2022).
Drop in retail sales
Between November, the Monthly Commerce Survey (PMC) recorded a 0.9% drop in retail sales, followed by an even stronger drop in December, equal to 2.6%. However, year-to-date, the retail sector still saw an increase of 1%. The segments with the biggest increase in retail were: fuels and lubricants (16%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (14.8%) (IBGE, 2022b )
References:
IBGE. IPCA - Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (2022a)
IBGE. PMC - Pesquisa Mensal do Comércio (2022b)
IBGE. PMS - Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços (2022c)
FGV IBRE. Superávit comercial do Brasil em 2022 fica ligeiramente superior ao de 2021 (2022)
EXAME. Ibovespa sobe com Powell mas cai 3% em novembro (2022a)
EXAME. IPCA sobe 0,62% em dezembro e inflação brasileira termina 2022 em 5,79% (2022b)
AGÊNCIA BRASIL. BC revisa previsão de crescimento do PIB de 2,7% para 2,9%, neste ano (2022)
INFOMONEY. BC eleva projeção de crescimento o PIB de 2022 para 2,9% e mantém a de 2023 em 1% (2022b)
MONITOR MERCANTIL. Zona do Euro e Inglaterra elevam taxas de juros em 0,5 ponto (2022)
JORNAL NEGÓCIOS. BCE sobe taxas de juro na Zona Euro em mais 50 pontos base (2022)
CEAGESP. Índice CEAGESP registra variação de -3,13% em dezembro (2022)
RECEITA FEDERAL. Arrecadação federal alcança R$ 172,038 bilhões em novembro (2022)
CANAL RURAL. Exportações do agronegócio batem recorde em novembro (2022)
UOL ECONOMIA. BC mantém juros a 13,75% em última reunião do Copom este ano (2022)
DIEESE. Em 2022, preço da cesta básica aumentaem todas as 17 capitais pesquisadas (2022)
AGROFLY NEWS. Preço global dos alimentos cai pelo 9º mês, mas ainda está 14,3% maior (2022)
YAHOO NOTÍCIAS. Rotativo do cartão bate recorde em 2022; modalidade tem os maiores juros (2022)