ANBIMA announced that capital market revenue was very good in the first quarter of the year: R$ 130.9 billion, exceeding the same quarter in 2023 by 91%. But... Fixed income sang "everything is dominated!" , achieving a collection of R$ 114.1 billion against a mere R$ 3.8 billion from variable income. The remainder accounts for hybrid assets (UOL Economia).
With the low collection of variable income, Ibov's poor performance can already be deduced: it recorded a loss of 0.71%. One of the main reasons was the FED's postponement, once again in March, of the cuts in its basic interest rate. As a result, foreigners continued to flee B3 towards American fixed income (even after realizing the profits from B3's previous increases), generating a strong outflow in recent months and a negative balance of R$22.9 billion in the first quarter . In the accumulated result for this period, there is a drop of 4.53% in Ibov (Suno, E-Investidor).
And the National Monetary Council (CMN) had the courage and changed one of the applications most sought after by Brazilians: the LCI (Real Estate Credit Bill) and the LCA (Agribusiness Credit Bill). Now the LCA has a minimum investment period of 9 months (previously it was 3 months), while the LCI is even more cumbersome - its period went from 3 months to 12 months (Financial Intelligence). The CRI (Real Estate Receivables Certificate) and the CRA (Agribusiness Receivables Certificate) did not escape either, undergoing changes in the typologies that can act as their backing (Financial Intelligence, InfoMoney(a)).
And the changes in CRIs and CRAs brought immediate impacts: issues of these bonds evaporated, catapulting demand for incentivized debentures (Financial Intelligence (b))
Follow the flow: new Selic lowThe Copom's promises are coming true again: at this March's meeting there was a new cut of 0.5 p.p. in a unanimous decision by the board, reducing the Selic rate level to 10.75%. In time: there are signs from its members that from June onwards the pace of reductions will decrease (Exame).
In March, federal revenue for February was released, and an unexpected result: it was the record value of its historical series for the respective period of the year, reaching R$ 186.5 billion. The real increase was 12.3%, driven mainly by gains in social security contributions, fuel taxes and the taxation of new exclusive funds (Forbes).
The rise in the IPCA in March was very slight, just 0.16%. However, as in previous months, the food segment was the highlight of the index, with an increase of 0.53% (Agência IBGE Notícias).
References: Agência IBGE Notícias, E-Investidor, Exame, Forbes, Inteligência Financeira(a), Inteligência Financeira (b), InfoMoney(a), UOL Economia, Suno