By Daniel Christian Henrique
Lowest quarterly unemployment rate
The IBGE released this March the unemployment rate for the quarter ended in January 2022. It ended with 11.2% of labor without occupation in the country (still maintaining this percentage until February), the lowest rate since the end of 2015, when it had reached the level of 9.6% (IBGE, 2022).
Higher household indebtedness rate
As a counterpoint to the lowest unemployment rate in recent years, March recorded the highest debt rate of Brazilian households, with a significant value of 77.5% of households with some type of debt, whether it is in arrears or not. Accounting only for defaulted debts, 27.8% of households were reached, the highest record since the beginning of the Consumer Debt and Delinquency Survey (Peic) (AGÊNCIA BRASIL, 2022)
Increase in foreign investment
Between January and March 2022, the balance of foreign investment in the country was R$ 67.09 billion. These entries account for both variable income and fixed income. But the biggest responsible was commodities, due to the increased search of foreign investors for countries with strength in exports of the segment due to the war in Ukraine that has unbalanced the prices of some commodities worldwide, mainly wheat and oil – since Ukraine and Russia are major producers of these. Ibov holds 30% of commodity producing companies, making clear the main motivation of foreign entry into B3 (CNN, 2022).
Other justifications for this increase make up the country's current high interest rate, enabling higher yields, as well as the rising U.S. inflation rate that has led foreigners to protect their resources through the diversification of their investments in other markets (FORBES MONEY, 2022; CANAL RURAL, 2022, EXAME, 2022a). With oil still under pressure from inflation, bacen is likely to continue defining the economy's basic interest rate, Selic (EXAME, 2022a)
Dollar plummets
As a consequence of these foreign capital inflows due to high interest rates and the search for protection in the strength of commodities, the dollar then falls in March, ending the period at its lowest value in the last two years, accumulating a low of 17.36% from January to early April (CANAL RURAL, 2022). The last march price closed at R$ 4.77 (EXAME, 2022a)
Record surplus in the trade balance
And the war in Ukraine definitely does not seem to have shaken tupiniquins exports. The positive balance for March reached US$ 7.383 billion, the highest record for the month of its historical series that began in 1989. The largest increases were in the agricultural segment (↑ 36.8%) and the manufacturing industry (↑ 35.2%) (JORNAL DO COMÉRCIO, 2022).
Santa Catarina followed this national scenario and ends the quarter with record exports and imports, surpassing the 1997 values of its historical series. It ended March with a deficit in the trade balance of R$ 1.4 billion, mainly due to the higher input sums of inputs from the manufacturing industry. Exports grew 33.8% in the first quarter of this year compared to last year (OBSERVATÓRIO FIESC, 2022).
Record inflation, again...
If the historical series of exports hit its record in March, in the same month the ipca historical series also continued to promote (again) its record, reaching 1.62% in March, the highest percentage since 1994. The accumulated year reached 11.3% (IBGE, 2022; EXAME, 2022b)
References
AGÊNCIA BRASIL. Endividamento de famílias atinge nível recorde em março, diz CNC (2022)
IBGE. Taxa de desocupação, jan-fev-mar 2012 - dez-jan-fev 2022 (2022)
CANAL RURAL. Dólar despenca e fecha no menor nível em dois anos
CNN. Em três meses, investimento estrangeiro na B3 tem saldo de R$ 67 bilhões (2022)
EXAME. Cotação do dólar está no menor nível em dois anos. É hora de comprar? (2022a)
EXAME. Inflação no IPCA é de 1,62% em março, a maior desde 1994 (2022b)
FORBES MONEY. Investidores estrangeiros apostam alto na Bolsa brasileira em busca de maiores rendimentos IBGE. Inflação
JORNAL DO COMÉRCIO. Balança comercial tem superávit recorde de US$ 7,383 bilhões em março