Popular or unpopular car?
We had already been reporting regularly in our bulletins about the drama of new cars, which are increasingly " unpopular" due to their exorbitant prices. The federal government decided to take some measure: in May, IPI and PIS/COFINS cuts were announced with the aim of reducing the price of cars by between 1.5% and 10.96% - with the percentages being higher for the "cheaper" cars. , as well as for less polluting cars with a greater number of components (Exam). However, according to forecasts, only two models would reach values close to R$60,000, with another four between R$60,000 and R$65,000 ( Infomoney ). But right at the start of June, the proposal changed again and got worse: the maximum discount will be R$8,000.00, but now including trucks and buses (ah, yes... ) . It benefited the middle class, without a doubt. However, if we compare it with the low average income of Brazilians, a truly popular car for everyone will take a while yet...
Finally: fuel readjustment reaches the final consumer... only in May
Petrobrás' readjustment reducing costs for refineries and distributors was already routinely reported here in our bulletins. And the end consumer? I was always just hoping for some relief in my pocket. In May, the company made a new reduction of 12.6% in gasoline prices, 12.8% in diesel, and 21.3% in gas. Finally, the reduction reached the consumer, but lightly: gasoline fell 0.5% in the middle of the month, reaching R$5.49, just as diesel fell 0.97%, to R$5.57 ( Infomoney (b), Financial Intelligence (a)).
But without much fanfare. On the first day of June, there was the reinstatement of ICMS on fuels and in July there will be the return of PIS/COFINS, with consequent new increases at gas stations (UOL). At the end of May, people were already running to get gas.
And the IPCA followed fuels
Inflation reflected the drop in fuel prices. The IPCA-15 (preview of official inflation) was released at 0.51%, below expectations that reached projections of 0.64%. The highlights of the components of the index that saw a decline were fuels (except ethanol), given the price reductions that reached the pumps, and airline tickets (O Tempo).
And the IGP-M... in the commodities ballad
And for the second consecutive month, the IGP-M recorded deflation in the year, recording a drop of -1.84% in May, generating an accumulated figure for the year of -2.58% and -4.47% in 12 months. The index was driven by the biggest monthly retraction in the IPA (Broad Producer Price Index) historical series, which accounted for -2.72%, compared to the drops in five important commodities, with emphasis on iron ore and soybeans (FGV, Financial Intelligence (b) )
Meanwhile, in the living room .... of the Central Bank
Even with inflation taking a break this month, the fiscal framework still has to be voted on and approved to then have a better idea of what the future public debt will look like. Added to this: external scenarios continue to be beyond adverse, with constant global inflationary pressures. Therefore, while the order of factors is not changing the score, the flow continues: Selic at 13.75% confirmed at the May COMPOM meeting (BCB). The federal government's wheezing was guaranteed.
Meanwhile, in the living room .... from the Federal Reserve
And in the land of Uncle Sam, inflation continues to push. And the FED, giving no respite: continues in May with another tightening with an increase in its interest rate by 0.25 pp . - the tenth in a row, leaving your reference rate between 5% and 5.25% per year (Your Money). This is the highest percentage recorded in 16 years.
Ball of the moment: First Republic Bank
And with an increase here and an increase there in North American interest rates, there also continues to be a crash there and a crash here in the banking sector, which is not at all used to this monetary rigor. The highlight of the North American banking crisis was First Republic Bank, declaring bankruptcy at the end of May and beginning of June, shortly after the announcement of the new high cycle defined by the FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) (Your Money). Would other regional and smaller banks be in line? Jerome Powell has already said that the FED will maintain its line of tightening interest rates if inflation persists. Wall Street traded lower immediately after his speech (Exame Invest ). Looking like copy and paste from Brazil.
US public debt limit on cap
Yes... definitely Brazil and the United States should exchange more cards. Americans reached their public debt limit in January. Since then, the Treasury has been working hard to meet its payment obligations, but is almost exhausted. In May, Republicans and Democrats clashed in discussions about whether or not to cut public spending for a possible increase in their debt limit (Forbes). The USA officially started to run the risk of not being able to pay its debt, drawing the market's attention... but this situation has occurred a few times in the past and was politically resolved ( Financial Intelligence c). Heated discussions about whether or not to increase the public debt limit linked to public spending... Have you seen this here in Brazil?!
Make a Pix ?
And Pix arrived, parked and took the space. Since its launch, the number of transactions has only grown, far exceeding expectations for growth in its use by the Central Bank itself. Data released on the first day of May by the BC states that Pix reached 29% of transactions carried out in 2022, becoming for the first time the most used payment method by Brazilians. It surpassed payments with credit cards (with 20% of transactions), debit cards (19%), bank slips (8.9%) and checks (1%) (UOL Economia).
Services still at the forefront of the resumption of employability
The services sector cannot contain its enthusiasm and continues to be a leader in job creation. Disclosures from the last day of May indicate that in April Brazil created 180,000 job vacancies (net value: total admissions minus total dismissals), generating a cumulative total of 705,790 vacancies in the year to date. Of this total, the services sector emerged with 103,894 vacancies, followed by the other groups, but with much less significant values: civil construction with 26,937 open positions, 27,559 in commerce, 19,713 in industry and agriculture with just 2,902 (Money Times).
Ibov in the blue
And May ended the Ibov with an increase of 3.74%, mitigating the year's accumulated losses. The biggest highlights of the increase were: Yduqs (73.28%), Azul (55.16%), Dexco (50.25%), Locaweb (47.02%) and Hapvida (44.57%) (E-Investidor (The)). As for the losses, the highlights were: Cielo (-13.52%), Assaí (-12.53%), Carrefour (-11.51%), Vale (-11.86%) and Bradespar (-10.17 %) (E-Investor (b)).
References : BCB , E-Investor (a) , E-Investor (b) , Exame , Exame Invest , Infomoney (a) , FGV , Infomoney (b) , Financial Intelligence (a) , Financial Intelligence (b) , Financial Intelligence ( c) , Forbes , Money Times , O Tempo , Seu Dinheiro , UOL , UOL Economia