By Daniel Christian Henrique
The months of December/2021 and January/2022 were marked by several records of positive but also negative scopes....
Selic rate - how far will it go?
In December, the BC once again raises the Selic by +1.5 p.p., setting the 7th consecutive readjustment of 2021, reaching 9.25% p.a. (CORREIO BRAZILIENSE, 2022). To ignite even more attention, the Bacen also recently announced on February 2nd, another high at the same level, catapulting the Selic to 10.75% p.a. (CNN, 2022). The BC promises more modest increases for this year, but the high level it is already at will impact business investments. The balance between attempts to control inflation, mainly with increases in the basic interest rate and reduction of investments, is a difficult rule to use.
Records at B3: Ibov losses and recovery, registered PFs and IPOs
The Ibov managed to recover in December, managing to get out of the downward path that it had been triggering since the middle of the year, rising 2.85%, but ending with total losses of -11.93% in 2021, even beating its record on the 6th of December. June, closing at 130,776 points (ECONOMATICA, 2022).
The turn of the year came, and the scenario began a strong reversal with gains of 6.98% in January, leveraged by the second largest volume of foreign investment in the last ten years. There are different explanations: from the sharp rises in oil (the highest since 2014) arising from the crisis in Ukraine, benefiting shares PETR3 and PETR4 which rose 13% and 14% respectively. Signals from China to reduce its interest rates, in turn, benefited iron ore and consequently the shares VALE3, CSNA3 and USIM5. The lower political movement in January was another weighted factor for the biggest gains in the Ibov (INFOMONEY, 2022)
Until December, B3 also achieved a new record of 45 IPOs, catapulted mainly by the moment lived until the middle of the year, when the Ibov was also coming from its high peak, but the fears that arose from the domestic and international markets slowed down the spirits. (EXAME INVEST, 2021). This process was accompanied by the number of individuals who joined B3, surpassing 4 million and beating the national stock exchange record in terms of financial volume: R$ 7.04 trillion (ISTO É DINHEIRO, 2022).
Bitcoin - winner and uncertain
Running in parallel with the Ibov crisis in 2021, Bitcoin accumulates gains of 75.83%. However, its very high volatility generates high degrees of difficulty in predicting its fluctuations for 2022. The gains of BDRs and ETFs, measured by the BDRX, remained in the lead, reaching the second place of the year, 33.7% in the year, following the opposite direction of the Ibov that accumulated losses (FOLHA, 2021). Abroad in high, national stock market in low....
More records: inflation rates
Those who remained in traditional investments lowered their eyebrows when they saw the annual closing of inflation rates, generating real losses in their investments. In December, the preview of inflation by the IPCA-15 index, despite a reduction compared to previous increases, was still important, at around 0.78%, closing 2021 at a total of 10.4% pa, configuring the highest increase in the accumulated since 2015. In January it reached a similar percentage to the end of last year, 0.58%. (IBGE, 2022). Finally, the IPCA ended 2021 at 9.3%, the IGP-M at an incredible 17.8% and the IPC-Fipe at 9.7% (FOLHA, 2021)
And more records: crop failures and meat in recovery
The closing of December and the beginning of January were definitely marked by several records. But another negative now.... The severe frosts, excess rains and droughts of 2021 ended the year in December with record crop failures, catapulting the prices of various foods and consequently being one of the main responsible for the increases in the last months of the indexes. of inflation (SAFRAS & MERCADOS, 2021).
On the other hand, now another counterpoint with a positive record: Brazil, given its strong global position in agribusiness, broke the record for soybean exports in 2021, totaling 83.3 million tons (PORTOS E NAVIOS, 2022), with high shipments to China, the largest buyer of this commodity. Another commodity that the Chinese are Brazil's biggest customers is the meat that came under their embargo. Finally, in December, they put an end to the restrictions on the purchase of Brazilian meat, generating new reliefs for the prices of the arroba of fat cattle (DIARIO DO COMÉRCIO, 2021).
Sources (click on the titles of the links to access):
CORREIO BRAZILIENSE. Selic no fim de 2022 sobe de 11,50% para 11,75% ao ano, prevê mercado
CNN. Na primeira reunião de 2022, Copom eleva Selic para 10,75% ao ano
DIÁRIO DO COMÉRCIO. Fim do embargo chinês à carne bovina alivia o setor ECONOMATICA. Plataforma financeira.
EXAME INVEST. Os IPOs que bateram o Ibovespa em 2021; e o que esperar de 3 ações
FOLHA DE S. PAULO. Inflação derruba aplicações tradicionais e bitcoin é melhor investimento de 2021
IBGE. IPCA-15 - Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15
ISTO É DINHEIRO. 2021, um ano de vários recordes na B3
PORTOS E NAVIOS. Exportações de soja bateram recorde em 2021
SAFRAS & MERCADOS. 2021 foi de preços recordes para milho e de duras quebras de safra