By Daniel Christian Henrique
Euro: below parity with the dollar in August
In August the Euro reached the level of parity with the Dollar and came to be below it. It was the lowest price ever recorded in the last 20 years of the European currency. The main relevant factors contributing to this situation were the fear of a further recession in Europe in the face of doubts about the continued supply of Russian gas to the region and increases in the prices of the gas itself, as well as electricity. In particular, there are fears for Germany and Italy, which have developed over the years greater import dependencies of these commodities from Russia (ISTO É DINHEIRO, 2022).
Where's it going to end? new record household indebtedness
Last month we had already reported the bottom of the well with a new record breaking of household indebtedness, reaching 78% of the total household, surpassing the levels of the previous year at the height of the pandemic. But the month of August managed to maintain the trajectory with a new record breaking: 79% of households with some debt to be won (CNC SESC SENAC, 2022).
Brent price at pre-war level of Ukraine
Brent (barrel of oil) was trading at $96.84 on February 23, the day before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It even rose to the value of US$ 120.00 in the course of the evolution of the conflict, bringing in its journey the worldwide increase in fuel prices. Finally, at the end of August, it regressed to the pre-war level, beating us$ 96.48 (O TEMPO, 2022).
Agro sets export record in August
Of the total shipped in the country to abroad, agribusiness represented an expressive 48.1%, the highest record in the historical series for the month of August. Some commodities accounted for this rise. Corn broke its record for exports and revenue, mainly for the European Union, in the face of rising prices in the international market and record production in the 2020/2021 harvests. The meat also increased its exports in the face of china's greatest demands. Soybeans, as always, also had its weight, also elapsed from the average increase of its export price, with strong acquisitions from China, its largest buyer (CANAL RURAL, 2022; CORREIO BRAZILIENSE, 2022).
There were increases in agro exports, but agro imports also increased. Its historical series with a start date in 1997 also broke its resistance, accounting for US$ 1.68 billion acquired from abroad (CORREIO BRAZILIENSE, 2022).
Deflation: we're back to an inflationary digit
The IPCA recorded a new negative rate of inflation in August (-0.36%), following the deflation of July, returning to be only in the single digit in its accumulated 12 months, equivalent to 8.73%. The main responsible for this rate were the new falls in fuels, although not as significant as the July values, falling 10.82%. The decreases in ICMS rates on electricity also played a contributing role (EXAME, 2022).
Ibov keeps up the resumption
In July Ibov had already recovered its breath, reversing the losses of June, and maintained its trajectory in August, closing the month with a high of 6.16% - consolidated much by the re-entry of foreign capital in the stock exchange (EXAME INVEST, 2022; ADVFN NEWS, 2022). This was the second best monthly performance of the year, second only to January earnings (6.98%) (ADVFN NEWS, 2022).
GDP upward revision
In August, with positive releases of second-quarter GDP results (exceeding previous projections by 1.2%, GDP forecasts for the end of the year were revised. The new projections range from 2.9% to 3.25% growth in 2022. In general, they attribute this resumption of growth and optimism in the projections to the following factors: strong resumption of the service sector, fall in fuel prices, general reopening of the economy in the relaxation of covid-19 restrictions, recovery of the labor market, extraordinary release of the FGTS, anticipation of the 13th to retirees and pensioners, Program Assistance Brazil and trucker aid (INFOMONEY, 2022).
Food Parcel decreases in 16 capitals!
Dieese recorded a reduction in the prices of basic baskets in 16 of the 17 capitals. The products of the baskets that presented the highest losses were: potato, soybean oil, carioquinha beans, black beans, tomatoes, kilo of coffee and kilo of French bread (DIEESE, 2022).
Inflation in the European Union breaking record
The record-breaking season is not just brazil's thing. The most developed countries in the European Union are experiencing long-unseen monthly inflationrates in the region, being surpassed only by post-world war moments. In August, annualized inflation in the euro zone hit a record high of 9.1% in the accumulated, exceeding expectations of lower rates. Two commodities are the biggest responsible: the price of gas and electricity. The Russian government's rationing of the Gas pipeline linked to Europe is the main villain in history (SUNO, 2022; AGORA EUROPA, 2022).
References:
AGORA EUROPA. Reino Unido confirma aumento de 80% no preço da energia elétrica (2022)
CANAL RURAL. Recorde: produtos do agro movimentam US$ 14,8 bi em exportação em agosto (2022)CNC SESC SENAC. Consumidores estão se endividando mais em carnês e cartões de lojas (2022)
CORREIO BRAZILIENSE. Exportações do agro atingem recorde para agosto de US$ 14,8 bilhões (2022)
DIEESE. Custo da cesta básica diminuiu em 16 capitais (2022)EXAME. Inflação cai 0,36% em agosto no IPCA e acumulado vai a 8,73% (2022)
EXAME INVEST. Ibovespa hoje: bolsa cai acompanhando EUA mas fecha agosto em alta de 6% (2022)
ISTO É DINHIERO. Por que a queda do euro pode ser um bom negócio (2022)
O TEMPO. Preço do petróleo recua para patamar pré-guerra na Ucrânia (2022)