Minimum wage increase
April has good news for all workers in general. In recent months, Congress had already been planning the readjustment of the minimum wage, finally confirmed at the end of April. On the first day of May, the Provisional Measure was published, increasing its value from R$ 1,302.00 to R$ 1,320.00, that is, an increase of 1.3% (AGÊNCIA BRASIL a). The impact on public coffers will be R$4.3 billion. However, comparing how much of the old or new minimum wage would be needed to buy a current basic food basket, both continue to be poor for Brazilians who depend on this base wage.
IGP-M breathed commodities
The General Price Index - Market had an unexpected drop of 0.95% in April, mainly reflecting the drop in the price of several commodities and reducing prices for retailers and consequently for the final consumer (INFOMONEY a). Over the last 12 months, there has been a drop of 2.17%. Many property owners changed their rent adjustments in previous years, moving from IGPM to IPCA, due to the strong increases in the former and even under pressure from the renter market. Will there now be the opposite direction, a return to the IGP-M in rental contracts? Speaking of IPCA, it recorded an increase of 0.57% in the month, driven by the transport and health sectors ( GOV. BR).
Cheapest gas and diesel prices - for distributors .....
Petrobras announced in April another cut in the price of gas for distributors of 8.1%, generating an accumulated reduction of 19% for the year. However, the company reinforces that this cut will not necessarily reach consumers' pockets, just as it is not intended for cooking gas, LPG (MARKET AND CONSUMPTION). It didn't stop there, the company also announced a new reduction in diesel prices to distributors, from R$ 3.84 to 3.46 (MONEY TIMES).
Surplus is helping
Among the various discussions of the fiscal framework in congress for its approval, the primary surplus has been the main target, given its close relationship to the expected results. The months of March and April did their part to strengthen the pro-framework arguments, with a record surplus in March (driven by increases in soybean, corn and oil exports), and April with a surplus of US$ 8.225 billion, representing growth of 5.5% for the month (BCB, AGÊNCIA BRASIL c). It remains to be seen whether the situation in the near future will help maintain high surplus results!
Readjustment for public servants - a breather in the middle of the quagmire
2016. This was the last year of salary adjustments for public servants. Since then, inflation has only been eroding salaries, coupled with public infrastructure being scrapped in various spheres and a general disincentive to public careers, especially that of scientists/university professors (and consequent widespread brain drain to the private sector or abroad) . But in the last week of April, the National Congress approved the law that readjusts salaries by 9%, including retirees and pensioners. It is not nearly enough to adjust all inflationary losses, but it is a relief. The impact on public accounts is a predicted R$11 billion (UOL ECONOMIA).
Unemployment rises, but still at the lowest level since 2015
On April 28th, the IBGE results regarding the unemployment rate for the first quarter of this year were released. It rose to 8.8% against 7.9% in the previous quarter, reflecting a reduction in the number of employed workers with a formal contract. However, the institute points out that this increase reflects the seasonality of the period, as well as being the lowest rate since 2015 (when it reached exactly 8%) (EXAME).
Does it pass credit?
The level of unemployment being at low rates is good, because otherwise the level of debt, which continues to reach new records (as of August at 79%), would explode. April maintained the percentage of 78.3% of families in debt. This level was obtained without many variations in recent months, and was expected to remain until July. It is worth highlighting, however, that the type of debt on credit cards was the highest of the year, reaching 86.8% of debts, while personal credit it only got 9% (AGÊNCIA BRASIL b).
Planned and accomplished: breaking in progress
In January we had already highlighted the larger than normal breakage for the first month of the year and its possible expansion for the coming months, according to market analysts. Predicted and fulfilled. Recent disclosures in April from Serasa Experian indicate that the month of March increased its bankruptcy filings by 40.6% compared to March last year, just as the first quarter saw an increase of 44.1% compared to the previous year. Again, MSEs (Micro and Small Businesses) were responsible for 2/3 of a total of 94 requests in March. In Serasa Experian 's own analyses , three were the main reasons: high interest rates, increased default rates and a stagnant economy (CORREIO BRAZILIENSE).
Ibov in recovery
After two months of decline, Ibov rose again in April, ending the month with an increase of 2.5%. The biggest highlights of the increase were EzTec (+19.29%), BTG Pactual (+19.19%) and Ecorodovias (+19.11%), while the biggest drop was Assaí (-20.59%), followed by Natura (-16.21%). In general, the market kept an eye on discussions about the fiscal framework and possible easing of inflation in Brazil and the United States (INFOMONEY b).
Sale of new cars... the hot seat continues
The situation in the first two years regarding car sales was no longer good. However, in March there was a boost in used car negotiations due to the 5 extra working days, increasing 32.2% compared to February, even reaching the pre -pandemic sales level (FENABRAVE a). The new segment remained in the spotlight and entered April in the same situation. According to data from Fenabrave, total registrations in the first four months of this year are 32% below 2019, that is, before the pandemic. To make the situation more difficult, April, unlike March, had 5 fewer days due to holidays, reducing sales and a significant real drop. Andreta Jr, president of the institution, explains the main reasons: credit restrictions combined with the population's loss of purchasing power (FENANBRAVE b).
Oil in restriction
Speaking of restrictions, at the beginning of the month OPEC made an unexpected announcement: it cut the production of a barrel of oil ( Brent ) by 1.16 million barrels per day. It should be noted that in November last year the organization had already cut 2 million barrels per day and new reductions were not expected anytime soon. Expectations are expected to reach a value close to US$100.00 per barrel by the end of the year (FORBES, ESTADO DE MINAS )
World in low economic outlook
What everyone already knew was said by the general director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund), Kristalina Georgieva : the world's growth forecast is just 3% for 2023 and will remain at that level for the next 5 years. It also highlights that the world economy fell by half last year after the start of the war in Ukraine, just as strong post-pandemic recoveries were coming . Additionally, he concluded his interview by letting us know that: those who will be most severely impacted are the poorest people and countries... (UOL ECONOMIA b). Well, everyone already knew that too. But... talking doesn't solve much. Who knows, perhaps studies from the IMF and developed countries will emerge to try to help contain the hunger that will spread even further around the world... it doesn't hurt to ask!
Revolut make a revolution?
Fintech contribution was finalized Revolut here in Brazil, making its launch official at the beginning of May. It is the largest European digital bank, also known as " European Nubank ", now taking flight in Brazil. It arrives with the promise of converting 27 currencies at any time of the day, payments by pix and prepaid or credit card (this is still being approved by the BC), division of expenses between travel groups, among other benefits for those who travel frequently around the world. exterior. Right from the start, it will also feature investments abroad in cryptocurrencies , commodities and shares. They intend for Brazil to be among the five largest markets for their products (E-INVESTOR, REVISTA OESTE). Considering the high banking spreads (bank profits) in Brazil, mainly due to the lack of competition, here's to a fintech revolution !
Savings account: an endangered species
Revolution or not, what is known is that an evolution is taking place in the mentality of Brazilians in the face of Brazil's most Jurassic application: the savings account. This application had already been the result of gradual withdrawals in recent times, with the population putting aside extreme conservatism and migrating to other, more profitable fixed incomes (and even variable incomes). And April was the fourth month in a row in which withdrawals exceeded investments by R$6.251 billion (E-INVESTOR b).
Homeless population grows: an economic, social and health problem
And the consequences of the low economic growth of the world and the country are exposed to the eyes seen here in Brazil. According to data from the UFMG Brazilian Observatory, in one year the homeless population totaled 206 thousand people, an increase of 7% in twelve months. Of this total, 42% are on the streets of the state of São Paulo. Looking only at the capital of São Paulo, there are a total of 52 thousand residents in this situation, representing an increase of 8.2% in 2023 alone. Another study from this month of April, carried out by the city of Rio de Janeiro, highlights that the homeless population of city of Rio de Janeiro increased by 8.5% in two years (BAND NEWS a, BAND NEWS b).
ChatGPT geared up to make investments... And it's winning!
Are bank investment fund managers in danger?! ChatGPT discovered the world of investments... Between March 6th and April 28th, a chatbot achieved gains in its fictitious portfolio of 38 shares of around 4.9%. The 10 most important funds on the market, in turn, did not exceed 0.8% (CNN BRASIL). It is worth remembering that other funds managed by ChatGPT already existed, generally with quant appointments. Pedro Simonetti , from Giant Steps remembers that artificial intelligence is just a tool, which needs a manager who knows how to use it and solve the problem. It seems, then, that one cannot be without the other (INVESTNEWS). Many analysts are warning about the danger of blindly trusting intelligence tools without mastering them: the losses can be high.
Planned and achieved 2 : agribusiness exports with a new record
And the first four months of the year highlighted what had already been taking shape since last year: record breaks followed by agribusiness exports. The first four months of 2023 reached an export value equal to R$50.6 billion, a record, 4.3% higher than the same period last year and representing practically half of the country's exports (49%). Considering only the month of April, it was even higher: 53.9% represented by agribusiness, with emphasis on soybeans, chicken meat and pork (CRAP & MARKET).
Income improved but also worsened in 2022
IBGE released comparative data on per capita household income (from all sources) from its Continuous PNAD, highlighting that it improved by 6.9% in 2022, reaching R$1586 compared to R$1484 in 2021. It is noteworthy that the real average income of all jobs, in the opposite direction, fell 2.1%. The research results also indicate that the end of emergency aid and migration to Auxílio Brasil explains the reasons for the increase in households receiving this program (INFOMONEY c). The GPFA has been studying this relationship between income and social programs in its reports , see the latest one by clicking here . Updates coming soon.
Miles: expired and wasted
In the first two years of the pandemic, from 2020 to 2021, flights were cancelled. So the only thing that Brazilians saw take off were the miles on their wallets. According to Central Bank estimates, approximately 83.3 billion credit card miles expired from the beginning of the pandemic until the end of the second quarter of 2022 (E-INVESTOR c).
References: AGÊNCIA BRASIL a , AGÊNCIA BRASIL b , AGÊNCIA BRASIL c , BAND NEWS a , BAND NEWS , BCB , CORREIO BRAZILIENSE , CNN BRASIL , ESTADO DE MINAS , E-INVESTOR a , E-INVESTOR b , E-INVESTOR c , EXAME , FENABRAVE a , FENABRAVE b , FORBES , GOV. BR , INFOMONEY a , INFOMONEY b , INFOMONEY c , INVESTNEWS , MERCADO E CONSUMO , MONEY TIMES , REVISTA OESTE , SAFRAS & MERCADO , UOL ECONOMIA a , UOL ECONOMIA b