By Daniel Christian Henrique
Business confidence improves
FGV IBRE's Business Confidence Index (ECI) had been counting falls since November last year, but reaching 94.5 points in April, expressing a 2.7-point rise, marks a resumption of high and end of falls - at least momentarily.
The main responsible for the resumption was the services sector and the measures of stimulus to the economy such as the reduction of IPI, release of the FGTS and anticipations of the 13th to retirees and pensioners (FGV IBRE, 2022a). Considering the quarterly moving averages, there was an increase of 1.0 point after six months of decline (CORREIO DO ESTADO, 2022). In addition, the Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br), also released by FGV IBRE, slowed, ending April at 114.9 points, expressing a reduction of 6.4 points. This is the lowest value since the period in which the pandemic began in January 2020 (FGV IBRE, 2022b).
Services leverage with the easing of pandemic restrictions
In addition to amplifying business confidence, in April the services sector packed its biggest growth in the last 15 years, according to the Survey Indexes of Purchasing Managers (PMI), obtaining 60.6 in pmi, just below the 60.8 recorded in April 2007. The main responsible, as reported by S&P Global, were measures to ease the restrictions of the pandemic, added to policies to favor the resumption of the economy and increased demand from the creation of job vacancies (replacing the layoffs generated during the pandemic). Job creation in services was the best seen since June 2007 (DIÁRIO DO COMÉRCIO, 2022).
Records on the price of gas canisters and gasoline
Let's record: April recorded the highest price of the century for the 13kg gas cylinder (LPG), reaching an average value of R$ 113.48 according to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), the largest of its time series started in 2004. This amount currently represents 9.4% of the minimum wage commitment in force in Brazil (ISTO É DINHEIRO, 2022).
Gasoline continued its high gallop of the year, obtaining its maximum in late April with the value of R $ 7.27 per liter. The explanatory scenario of this high, according to the ANP, are related to the war in Ukraine and petrobras price policies (SEU DINHEIRO, 2022).
Household indebtedness, new record continues...
In a record-breaking year, household indebtedness has now entered the list of those who follow month by month with new levels not reached previously. In March, household indebtedness had already reached a record 77.5%, but April reached 77.7%, equivalent to 12 million Brazilians, according to the Consumer Indebtedness and Delinquency Survey of the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). The consecutive increase in inflation had its contribution to these highs (CORREIO BRAZILIENSE, 2022).
April, optimistic month for balance surplus
April was marked again by a great balance in the trade balance, about US$ 8 billion – according to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economy (Secex), accounting for the second best April of the historical series, only losing to April last year, in which the balance closed at US$ 9.63 billion (CANAL RURAL, 2022). Considering the accumulated four months of the year, the surplus reaches US$19.94 billion, the largest ever reached by this series of months (GOV.BR, 2022).
April, pessimistic month for inflation
And inflationary records don't stop, month by month are announced records. The recorded inflation of 1.06% was the highest for the month of April since 1996, generating in the accumulated one year the high inflation of 12.13%. The segments that most impacted the IPCA in the month were transport (fronts the high fuel) and food/beverage, totaling 80% of the index (IBGE, 2022; CNN, 2022; ESTADO DE MINAS, 2022). In addition, it is worth remembering that increases in inflation rates are spreading around the world. In time: someone can predict when these inflationary increases will stop and what their consequences are for the population and economy of the country, as well as the world in the near future??? .....
References:
CANAL RURAL. Balança comercial tem superávit de US$ 8,1 bilhões em abril, 2022.
CNN. Inflação desacelera a 1,06% em abril, maior variação para o mês desde 1996, diz IBGE
CORREIO DO ESTADO. Confiança empresarial sobe 2,7 pontos em abril ante março, para 94,5 pontos, 2022
ESTADO DE MINAS. Inflação oficial fica em 1,06% em abril, diz IBGE, 2022
IBGE. IPCA - Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo
GOV.BR. Comércio exterior brasileiro bate novos recordes nos quatro primeiros meses do ano, 2022.