By Daniel Christian Henrique
November marked the Ibov's biggest monthly rise in the last three years, with gains of 12.54%. The causes were mainly: the reduction in US bond rates (Treasuries - attracting risky investments from around the world) and following the biggest rises of the year in the US market (Dow Jones up 8.8%, S&P up 8.9% and Nasdaq up 10.7%) and the continued expectation of reductions in the Selic rate. It was a turnaround from October, when it fell -2.5% in the face of the month's global risk aversion and with Treasury Direct considerably increasing the number of securities sold (linked to the Selic) (E-Investidor, Inteligência Financeira, Seu Dinheiro, Valor Econômico)
Ok, Ibov did well, but are the new companies on B3 in the game? When the Selic rate plummeted to 2% during the pandemic, many investors took a chance on the stock market, after all, fixed income was at a low ebb. So, with the new wave of the moment, companies that hadn't even dreamed of B3 filed for an IPO, breaking the record for IPO filings. A total of 49 IPOs. Result 1 today: only 9 made a profit and even lost out to the Ibov itself. It gets worse: with the Selic rate going through the roof, today still at 12.25%, many have fallen back on their fixed gains and are still afraid to take them out to take a chance on the financial market again, given that companies and investors are still very wary of the external uncertainties that directly affect the world's stock markets. Result 2: it's been two years since any IPO was opened in the country, the biggest crisis since 1997 (Money Times).
Perhaps this mood, with the fall in Treasuries, and also counting on future falls in the Selic rate, will provide the necessary impetus to resume the growth of newcomers' earnings.
The wayIn mid-November, Serasa released its survey of Brazilian behavior and indebtedness for the year 2023. Conclusions: 59% of Brazilians' debts are with supermarkets, followed by 49% with clothes, shoes and household appliances, and in third place with 37% are medicines and medical treatments. Of all the indebted people in the country, 55% use credit cards (TV Cultura).
Despite the debts, there is hope! Literally. The same survey highlighted the increase in the expectation of indebted people to pay off their debts, accounting for an increase of four percentage points in the Indebted People's Hope Index.
The November inflation preview shows a reversal in the food group, which is now responsible for the 0.33% rise in inflation forecast for the period (in the previous five months, this segment had accumulated falls). On the other hand, the Transportation group, especially the Airline Tickets sub-item (up 19.03%), continues to lead the way. Fuels also fell again, by -2.11% (petrol, ethanol and vehicle gas), with the exception of diesel, which rose by 1.12% (IBGE).
In October, the Senate approved the extension of the payroll tax exemption until 2027 for 17 highly employable sectors of the economy. November came and the bill was vetoed by the president. The Senate promises to overturn the veto by the end of the year (Senado Notícias).
In an unprecedented move in the world, a law drafted entirely by Artificial Intelligence, via the use of ChatGPT by a Porto Alegre city councillor, was unanimously approved this November. But only after it had been signed into law did the councillor reveal the origin of the AI-drafted text! It's a law that exempts people from being charged for replacing their water meter if it's stolen (SBT News).
And with climate change, effective weather forecasting can help prevent millions in losses for citizens, businesses and farmers (as is often the case today). The company DeepMind has created GraphCast using AI, trained with all the weather data from the last 39 years. In a test in Europe over the last few months, of the 1,380 forecasts made, it was 90% more accurate than the old system until this November (O Estado de S. Paulo). Brazil, as one of the world's leading agribusinesses and a continental country with several climates in the same country (undergoing radical changes), will benefit immensely from this technology. It will literally be the "salvation of the crop". It's AI at the service of the well-being and finances of the population and the country. You just have to know how to use AI correctly!
If the constant reports of wars on the other side of the world seem little close to happening in reality in South America, things can unfortunately change... A territorial tension between Venezuela and Guyana that has lasted for centuries (since colonial times) could generate an escalation in the conflict and even a war... The reason is a region that goes up to the Esequibo River, highly rich in oil. Venezuela has already called for a national referendum for the population to decide whether or not to annex the region, while Guyana has gone ahead and gone to the International Courts of Justice. What will happen after the 3rd? Itamaraty is keeping an eye on it, while the Ministry of Defense has already sent reinforcements to its border with the countries involved (InfoMoney, Exame)
Today, exclusive funds (one or a few shareholders) and offshore funds (abroad) are taxed only upon redemption (even passing through generations without tax). To change this, a PL already processed in the chamber was approved without modifications by the senate. It is intended that offshore funds be taxed at 15% on their income and exclusive funds on semi-annual accumulated gains ("come-quotas" systems) at 15% on long-term and 20% on short-term. It now goes to sanction or veto by the presidency of the republic (Correio Braziliense).
Data from Pnad (National Household Sample Survey) released at the end of November indicate that unemployment fell to 7.6% in the quarter ended in October, the lowest level since 2015. The survey coordinator also adds that there was also a qualitative gain. with an increase in formality (but still at low levels) and workers' income (Forbes).
Referências: Correio Braziliense (30/11/23), E-Investidor, Exame, Forbes, IBGE, InfoMoney, Inteligência Financeira, Money Times, TV Cultura, O Estado de S. Paulo (18/11/23), SBT News, Senado Notícias, Seu Dinheiro