Research Group

Finance Analytics

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The financial sectors of the business and public sector are increasingly faced with problems that simultaneously bring together multidisciplinary understandings of finance, programming, economic engineering, machine learning, econometrics and administration. In the last decade, the line of studies in analytical finance emerged in developed countries, combining in its research all the tooling and theoretical apparatus of these areas.

In this context, the Finance Analytics Research Group was born. The team is made up of researchers and students with multidisciplinary training and focused on quantitative areas with the aim of offering analytical capacity to the scientific publications generated. The coordination of the group is the responsibility of Prof. Dr. Daniel Christian Henrique.

The group's main objective is to develop research and scientific reports in all areas of analytical finance or involving several of them. To achieve this purpose, extension projects, research projects and monograph guidelines are generated focused on analyzing the viability of enterprises or analyzing public databases from municipalities, states, federal and global agencies, as well as data from companies. publicly traded capital and sectors offered by B3.

The participating students are PIBIC (Institutional Program for Scientific and Technological Initiation) scholarship holders, PROBOLSAS (Extension Scholarship Program), monograph students or volunteers. Regarding research, extension and monograph development projects, research and scientific reports will be generated for posting on this website or for possible publications in conferences and specialized journals. There are also spaces for the dissemination of publications carried out throughout the participants' careers related to the areas of analytical finance, as well as for the dissemination of monographs supervised by the group coordinator with greater relevance but which were not published, developed by students from undergraduate courses in Engineering of Production at UFSC.

  •  23/12/2024 14:33

Autor: Igor Augusto Obreli Mouco. Orientador: Prof. Daniel Christian Henrique. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o impacto das variáveis climáticas no preço do café arábica no estado do Espírito Santo, utilizando dados de 2018 a 2022. A pesquisa adota uma abordagem quantitativa e utiliza técnicas de modelagem de a análise de séries temporais, como Vetores Autoregressivos (VAR), decomposição da variância e Função Impulso-Resposta, para identificar a relação entre as variáveis climáticas e o preço do café. A análise revelou que variáveis como precipitação, pressão atmosférica e radiação não têm impacto significativo sobre o preço do café. Em contrapartida, a temperatura de bulbo e a temperatura de orvalho mostraram-se variáveis com forte impacto, especialmente em defasagens temporais de 1 a 6 meses.

  •  23/12/2024 14:27

Autor: Rafael Hiroshi Odani. Orientador: Prof. Daniel Christian Henrique. Este trabalho tem como proposta a avaliação do valor econômico da Braskem, uma empresa de capital aberto relevante do setor de petroquímico brasileiro, através da aplicação do método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado. A avaliação considera uma análise estratégica da companhia que examina o posicionamento competitivo da companhia, tendências de mercado, riscos setoriais e oportunidades de crescimento e usa esse insumo como base para definir premissas e consolidar cenários que fundamentam as projeções dos fluxos financeiros e a taxa de desconto. Dessa forma, os fluxos de caixa futuros são trazidos a valor presente, permitindo mensurar o valor real das ações da empresa de acordo com os cenários propostos. Além disso, para complementar o modelo do FCD, aplicou-se a Avaliação por Múltiplos para a comparação dos resultados obtidos.

  •  23/12/2024 14:19

Autor: Eduardo Carvalho Di Donato. Orientador: Prof. Daniel Christian Henrique. O progressivo aumento da eletrificação de automóveis, juntamente com o crescimento populacional e o avanço de novas tecnologias, faz com que a demanda por energia elétrica aumente cada vez mais. Além disso, acontecimentos mundiais, como a pandemia da COVID-19, podem impactar diretamente essa demanda, como ocorreu com a diminuição do consumo de energia elétrica em alguns períodos. No segmento de transmissão de energia no Brasil, a receita proveniente das operações vem da Receita Anual Permitida (RAP), um valor fixo recebido pela prestação do serviço de transmissão. O recebimento da RAP depende da disponibilidade das linhas de transmissão, e não do volume de energia transportado. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo propõe-se a avaliar a influência na receita líquida da TAESA S.A., empresa do segmento de transmissão de energia elétrica, considerando a variação de variáveis contábeis internas e de variáveis econômicas externas.

  •  08/08/2024 13:09

Autor: Gabriel Santana dos Santos. Orientador: Prof. Daniel Christian Henrique. Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar o desempenho econômico-financeiro recente da empresa Tupy S.A., uma importante multinacional brasileira especializada na produção de componentes em ferro e usinagem. A análise de desempenho da Tupy frente às concorrentes de mercado também foi realizada, principalmente pelo uso das ferramentas de índice-padrão e análise horizontal. Além destas ferramentas, foram analisados os ativos e passivos circulantes, calculadas as alavancagens e traçadas linhas de tendência para correlação de indicadores da Tupy, finalizando com o cruzamento das informações obtidas com os relatórios da administração da empresa. O período de análise principal, entre os anos de 2019 e 2022, compreendeu os efeitos da pandemia de Covid-19, tornando ainda mais relevante a comparação entre empresas do setor, que reagiram de formas diferentes.

  •  20/02/2024 09:53

Author: Gustavo Odair Medeiros. Advisor: Professor Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the UFSC Institutional Repository. The current challenging environment demands an agile capacity to adapt to new ventures, highlighting the importance of identifying opportunities. However, a lack of planning and market analysis can result in unsuccessful ventures. Therefore, it becomes crucial to conduct a strategic and economic analysis to reduce the chances of failure in an uncertain context. This study, carried out using an exploratory case study methodology, aims to analyze the strategic and economic factors essential to the success of a new company focused on road freight transport, with an emphasis on serving the state of Santa Catarina and headquarters in Itajaí.

  •  15/12/2023 08:28

Author: Mickael Saadi de Penedo. Advisor: Professor Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the UFSC Institutional Repository. Since 2019, there has been a progressive relaxation in the reduction of requirements to migrate from the Regulated Contracting Environment to the Free Energy Market, resulting in an expansion of the latter and a reduction in the former. Free consumers who negotiate their conditions are obliged to guarantee, through contracts, that their entire energy load is met. Thus, it is known that these consumers will need to sign agreements to sell energy, but it is not known when this will occur or what factors intensify the demand for these buyers. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate the purchasing behavior of consumers from an energy supplier in the Free Contracting Environment.

  •  17/11/2023 08:58

Pesquisa publicada na Revista FSA (Qualis B2). Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique - Prof. Adjunto do EPS/UFSC; Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho - Bolsista de Extensão Probolsas; João Carlos Prats Ramos - Bolsista de Extensão Probolsas; Gabriel Dudena de Faria - Bolsista de Extensão Probolsas. A pandemia da covid-19 gerou sérios percalços financeiros e de saúde pública no mundo, aumentando a mortalidade e o desemprego, principalmente no primeiro ano de 2020, advindo dos lockdowns, assim como forçando 151 nações a criarem auxílios de renda emergenciais até o desenvolvimento e aplicação do ciclo vacinal completo. Ingressando no ano de 2022, houve uma volta à “normalidade”, mantendo-se um convívio com as novas variantes que até hoje rondam (com as atuais cepa Éris e Arcturus espalhando-se rapidamente pelo mundo). Este estudo, portanto, objetivou analisar o impacto que o número total de casos e de mortes gerados pela covid-19 ocasionou na variação da parcela da população que vive em extrema pobreza no mundo entre 2020 e 2022, assim como sua relação com as variações do Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) e do PIB Per Capita dos países. Adicionalmente, este estudo é uma adaptação e evolução da pesquisa de Vitenu-Sackey e Barfi (2021) que analisou variáveis equivalentes, porém aplicadas somente aos meses iniciais da pandemia nos quais o mundo ainda se adaptava a esse novo contexto econômico, social e sanitário. Os dados foram obtidos no Our World In Data (2023), que coleta e organiza dados de fontes públicas de organizações mundiais de credibilidade, abordando dados do Banco Mundial, OMS e ONU. Como metodologia, optou-se nesta pesquisa pela geração de regressões com uso de Inteligência Artificial via uso de Machine Learning para melhor acuracidade dos coeficientes, do R2 e da normalidade dos resíduos, possibilitando uma análise mais assertiva.

  •  07/07/2023 13:39

Author: Lucas Johannes Silva. Advisor: Professor Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the UFSC Institutional Repository. The ice cream sector in Brazil has a strong growth potential, surpassing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections for the coming years. Given these perspectives, the present study aims to carry out the economic-financial analysis for the opening of a new unit of a consolidated ice cream shop in Brasília. Five scenarios were analyzed with applications of uncertainty analysis, considering positive, moderate and negative variations in relation to factors such as rent increase, milk cost increase, GDP growth, climate change and rent increase combined with GDP growth . Taking into account the geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as the low probability of acceptable return for the new business, as well as the existence of several investment options that could guarantee returns above the basic interest rate with low risk, it was decided that it would not be feasible to start the new enterprise.

  •  19/12/2022 11:16

Author: Bianka Pisani de Souza. Advisor: Professor Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the Institutional Repository of UFSC. The scenario established in mid-2019, which established a pandemic state due to COVID-19, had a strong impact on the global economy, establishing new forms of consumption and significantly changing the consumer profile. For the textile sector, such changes were strongly felt and the perceived drop in revenues during the period was evident. The present work proposes to analyze revenue projections using different demand forecasting methods for different companies in the textile sector after the pandemic easing period. Short-term projections were analyzed using Machine Learning metrics and statistics for time series, considering that the models would make the necessary weights in view of the strong changes in net revenues that the pandemic period caused in the textile sector. It was adopted as a premise that at the time of data collection, the flexibility scenario would be associated with the active presence of Covid-19.

  •  16/08/2022 11:21

Author: Wesley Dias Oliveira. Advisor: Professor Dr. Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the Institutional Repository of UFSC. Driven by the opportunities for gains from the volatility of the speculative market, many investors seek to buy shares at the low to sell at the high, hoping to make gains in the near future. Imbued with this justification, the question is necessary: Is there a possible formation of the Overconfidence effect in the period of recovery of the IBOV index after the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic? To answer this questioning, it was necessary to use the method by Statman et al (2006).

  •  28/03/2022 08:35

Author: Danilo Ferreira Bento. Advisor: Professor Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the Institutional Repository of UFSC. Undergraduate courses in Production Engineering have a high dropout rate in Brazil and, even with the vertiginous expansion of on-site and distance courses in the last three decades, this rate has remained stable. In the case of this Course Completion Work, we seek to analyze qualitatively, through a literature review, and quantitatively, through logistic and multiple linear regressions implemented in R-Studio, the variables of this census that most contribute to the number of freshmen and graduates of national courses in Production Engineering, but also to verify which ones impact on blended courses in the face-to-face modality and on the use of accessibility materials (in Libras, Braille, digital and computer resources).

  •  28/03/2022 07:23

Author: Felipe Medeiros de Andrade. Advisor: Professor Daniel Christian Henrique. Final work for the undergratuation published in the Institutional Repository of UFSC. It is known that the current context generated by the pandemic has brought new challenges to the market, requiring a high capacity to adapt to this new reality, either by changing its processes or by viewing new opportunities. Therefore, the objective of this work was to identify and analyze the main strategic and economic factors that will influence the success of a new company focused on remote concierge services and e-commerce....

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  •  25/03/2025 10:45

Por Daniel Christian Henrique e Arthur Fermiano Gallate Ribeiro (bolsista de extensão Probolsas). Divulgamos o novo informe de nossa série extensionista relacionado a temática da evolução dos salários industriais nas diferentes regiões geográficas do país, realizando um comparativo entre o período imediatamente anterior a pandemia com o período de expansão da Covid-19, agora com com os resultados dos estados da região norte do país.

  •  22/02/2025 08:51

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189 Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, João Vitor Savi (Bolsista Probolsas).

  •  22/02/2025 08:50

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189. Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Bolsista Probolsas), ​João Carlos Prats Ramos (Bolsista Probolsas).

  •  22/02/2025 08:49

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189. Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, João Vitor Savi (Bolsista Probolsas), Sabrina Knoll Godoy Ilha, Fabio Augusto Dittrich, Eduardo Ferraz Lodi

  •  22/02/2025 08:48

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189 Autores: Adrielle Helena Mannrich, Daniel Christian Henrique

  •  22/02/2025 08:48

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189. Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, João Carlos Prats Ramos (Bolsista Pibic), Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva

  •  22/02/2025 08:47

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189 Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, Adrielle Helena Mannrich.

  •  22/02/2025 08:46

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189. Autores: Gabriel Dudena de Faria (Bolsista Probolsas), Daniel Christian Henrique

  •  22/02/2025 08:46

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189. Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, João Carlos Prats Ramos (Bolsista Pibic), Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva, ​Eduardo de Souza Ronsoni, Jucemar Paes Neto (Bolsista Probolsas).

  •  22/02/2025 08:46

Estudo aprovado e publicado no Simpósio de Engenharia de Produção 2024 (XXXI SIMPEP) - ISSN: 1809-7189. Autores: Daniel Christian Henrique, Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho (Bolsista Probolsas)

  •  01/11/2024 10:17

Por Daniel Christian Henrique, Arthur Fermiano Gallate Ribeiro (bolsista de extensão Probolsas), Sabrina Knoll Godoy Ilha, João Vitor Savi e Fabio Augusto Dittrich. Em sequência à divulgação da série de informes extensionistas na temática da evolução dos salários industriais nas diferentes regiões geográficas do país, realizando um comparativo entre o período imediatamente anterior a pandemia com o período pandêmico, divulgamos os resultados e análises da região nordeste.

  •  02/09/2024 17:53

Por Daniel Christian Henrique e João Vitor Savi (bolsista de extensão Probolsas). Em continuidade às análises das alterações das taxas dos juros básicos da economia norte-americana, o Fed Funds Target, nas reuniões do FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) pelo Fed, ingressamos neste estudo em uma segunda variável voltada ao âmbito da energia que está em constante atenção pelo comitê frente a pressão inflacionária que tem exercido com mais força no período pós pandêmico - decorrido de seu forte impacto em cadeia nos preços dos produtos: os combustíveis. Analisamos em separado os impactos gerados e sofridos pelos preços do diesel e da gasolina, após averiguações de diferentes defasagens nas análises realizadas previamente.

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Here you can find research prior to 2020 published in congresses and scientific journals by the members of the GPFA, individually or together with other researchers

Arthur Fermiano Gallate Ribeiro

Graduating in Full Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Bruno Daniel Osorio

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Daniel Christian Henrique

Adjunct Professor at the Department of Production Engineering and Systems UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

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Daniel Sottovia Gomide

Graduando em Engenharia Mecânica. UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina.

Fabio Augusto Dittrich

Graduating in Electronic Engineering - UFSC. Federal University of Santa Catarina

Felipe Kenji Arai

Graduating in Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Gaia Rutowitsch Rodrigues Silveira

Graduanda em Engenharia de Produção Civil. UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

Gabriel dos Santos Rambo

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Guilherme Casagrande Lima

Electrical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Igor Augusto Obreli Mouco

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

João Victor Alves

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Juliano dos Santos Rambo

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Sabrina Knoll Godoy Island

Undergraduate in Electronic Engineering - UFSC. Federal University of Santa Catarina

Christine Silva Saurin

Electrical Engineering Student - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Adrielle Helena Mannrich

Graduate in Chemical Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Bianka Pisani de Souza

Electrical Production Engineering student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Alexandre Marques Fortes

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Danilo Ferreira Bento

Graduating in Mechanical Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Eduardo de Souza Ronsoni

Mechanical Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Felipe Vieira Leandro da Silva

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Frederico Werner de Mascarenhas

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina. Professional master's degree in progress in Master of Business Administration. University of Georgia, UGA, United States.

Eduardo Di Donato

Majoring in Electrical Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Flavia Rodrigues de Souza

Graduating in Electrical Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Gabriel Dudena de Faria

Graduating in Electrical Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Eduardo Ferraz Lodi

Graduating in Electronic Engineering - UFSC. Federal University of Santa Catarina

Eric Nunes Garcia

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Gabriel Santana dos Santos

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Gustavo Odair Medeiros

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Gianpiero Camargo Bedin

Mechanical Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Ivan Aune de Aguiar Filho

Civil Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

João Carlos Prats Ramos

Electronic Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Luís Eduardo Fortunato

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Kevin Luiz Rocha de Azevedo

Graduating in Electrical Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Lucas Ferreira Mazagao

Graduated in Economic Sciences. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Lucas Johannes de Voest Silva

Graduating in Production Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Luis Gustavo Piva Machado

Graduating in Electrical Engineering. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Luiz Ricardo Mendes da Silva

Electrical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Mickael Saadi de Penedo

Electrical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Otávio Gomes

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Ilan Blanche

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Joao Marcos Seraphim Mello

Electrical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Jucemar Paes Neto

Electronic Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Pedro Augusto Dalinghaus dos Santos

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Ricardo Pering dos Santos

Civil Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Pablo André Kraemer Aliaga

Electrical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Wesley Dias Oliveira

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Fabricio Emydio da Silva

Electrical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

Patrick Lazzarin

Mechanical Production Engineering Student. UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

João Vitor Savi

Graduating in Electrical Engineering - UFSC. Federal University of Santa Catarina

Luiz Ricardo Sanchez Alves

Graduating in Electrical Engineering - UFSC. Federal University of Santa Catarina

Pâmela Beatriz da Silva Farias

Undergraduate in Electronic Engineering - UFSC. Federal University of Santa Catarina

Rafael Hiroshi Odani

Graduating in Civil Production Engineering at UFSC - Federal University of Santa Catarina

About the AnalyticPro Spreadsheet

The AnalyticPro Spreadsheet (provisional name) is a powerful financial tool in Microsoft Excel for project and enterprise cash flow projections developed at GPFA by Prof. Dr. Daniel Christian Henrique. After a few years of construction, the spreadsheet could now be validated in projections of real and simulated projects arising from monograph research.

Theory and practice

One of the biggest advantages of this spreadsheet in relation to the software found on the market is its total integration with financial theories, with integrated and pre-designed tabs to meet the different phases of a direct cash flow. Notably, it has already entered as one of the best spreadsheets for financial projection in the national academic environment.

Capacity

The spreadsheet supports the inclusion of up to 35 products or services, with the possibility of splitting the revenues and costs; SAC or PRICE financing; separation between direct, indirect costs and expenses; projection for a predictable period of up to 30 years plus another 30 years of unpredictable period - totaling 60 years of cash flow. Offers the option of taxation by real or simple national profit.

Projections

The projections of changes in future cash flows can be differentiated for each product, type of tax, revenue, costs or expenses, facilitating the generation of optimistic, probable or pessimistic estimates as the fluctuations in the main variables of the project are simulated.

In progress

The spreadsheet already supports performing scenario analyzes, sensitivity analyzes and Monte Carlo simulations. However, the possibility of greater automation in the inputs of the variation data and generation of the resulting cash flows is in progress.

Do your research with us

The AnalyticPro Spreadsheet is exclusive for use in research, not for sale. In the future, at the end of its development, we intend to adapt it to HTML or in executable to facilitate the use in GPFA research and guidelines in other universities.

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